Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China

Understanding the impact of drought on fire dynamics is crucial for assessing potential effects climate change wildfire activity in China. In this study, we present a series multiple linear regression (MLR) models linking burned area (BA) during mainland China’s season from 2001 to 2019, across seven regions, concurrent drought, antecedent and time trend. We estimated using Collection 6 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectradiometer (MODIS) indicators either Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) or self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity (sc-PDSI). Our findings indicate that displays spatial variation pattern increases with latitude, Northeast China (NEC), North (NC), Central (CC) regions identified as primary areas occurrence. Concurrent conditions were found have varying dominant predictor NEC Southeast (SEC) key most regions. also Northwest (NWC) CC exhibit gradual decrease over time, while region showed slight increase. exhibited notable level predictive power, evidenced by average correlation coefficient 0.63 between leave-one-out cross-validation predictions observed values. particular, NEC, NWC, demonstrated strong correlations 0.88, 0.80, 0.76, respectively. This indicates our contribute prediction future occurrences development effective management prevention strategies. Nevertheless, intricate relationship among fire, change, human activities, vegetation distribution may limit generalizability these other conditions. Consequently, research should consider broad range factors develop more comprehensive models.